Set 3.2: Scenario Development

Establishing Resilience Principles


Set 3.2

Scenario Development


Planning for an uncertain future is complex. It requires resilience planners to make assumptions about what is driving urban change, what changes will occur, and then, ultimately, what activities can be undertaken to control that change in beneficial, resilient ways. Scenario development allows you to explore a range of possible future conditions, to examine how vulnerability might change in each future, and to evaluate what actions would build resilience under most or all of those possible futures. download

Objectives

  • Learn how to use scenario planning as a tool for exploring future conditions and developing, evaluating and ranking resilience interventions.
  • Understand why scenario planning is a more effective means of future planning than trend analysis.